May 25, 2004

Industry insiders say Google is considering entering into a kind of intimate technological relationship with its users.

Google needs to expand its technology offerings into other areas if it's going to thrive, say many experts.

In particular, the company needs to defend itself from Microsoft. The Redmond, Wash., software giant plans to unleash the next generation of its Windows software, code-named Longhorn, sometime in 2006.

Many experts expect that Microsoft will seek to suffocate Google with a built-in function that can scour the Web or search any of a user's computer files, including e-mails and Word documents, all with a simple click of the mouse on a key word or phrase.

"It's clear to me that search is going to become more deeply embedded in the operating system. It's where the value is," said Michael Robertson, chief executive of Lindows, a San Diego company that competes with Microsoft by selling a version of the Linux (news - web sites) operating system.

Jeffrey Ullman, a Stanford University computer science professor who advised Google co-founder Sergey Brin, said the company has no choice but to fight Microsoft on its home turf. "If Microsoft controls the desktop, they'll probably strangle Google," he said.

Google refuses to discuss its plans, and the company is now in a quiet period surrounding its initial public offering. Microsoft also declined to discuss its search plans.

But Google hasn't been dawdling. It has talked with a number of industry players, including Lindows, about integrating its technology into operating systems, the core layer of software that runs a computer.

Lindows technology Ullman said he has looked at Lindows and believes it could be a good fit for Google. He has passed on his views to Google but does not know how Google will proceed.

Google is reportedly considering a half-step: an add-on desktop tool that will allow computer users to search their own files as well as the Web.

But some experts say that such a search capability would be inferior to one that is embedded in the operating system.

An operating system that incorporated Google technology would allow users to conduct Web or file searches from inside e-mails or documents with a single mouse click. More important, such an arrangement would allow Google to own all the search capabilities on a computer, driving traffic to its ad-supported search results.

Google's best chance to integrate itself into an operating system may be to work with one or more vendors of Linux, an increasingly popular operating system that works on open-source principles, which allow outside programmers to freely modify it or build new programs. Linux's main advantage is that it is cheaper and simpler in design than Microsoft's Windows.

But Microsoft software runs more than 90 percent of the world's personal computers. A Google-Linux partnership might not make much of a dent.

"That sounds to me like people fishing around for the next big thing, the big battle between Google and Microsoft," said David Thede, president of dtSearch, whose technology helps power a search tool from HotBot, a Google competitor.

Google could avoid a pitched battle at the individual computer level and instead seek to establish itself as a collection of Internet services, much like Yahoo is doing.

Google has been building one of the world's largest supercomputers, a network of as many as 100,000 low-cost servers scattered around the globe. Google could layer any number of products on top of that network, such as online document storage or a hosting service that would allow businesses or individuals to access applications from anywhere in the world.

Already, Google is experimenting with Gmail, an Internet e-mail service with lots of storage and the ability to search e-mails and the Web. It is also offering a shopping search function, social networking tools, online discussion groups and localized searches.

Experts believe Google could potentially turn its network into a full-fledged "online operating system" that manages everything, effectively allowing the user to bypass Windows. Users would simply go online for all their needs.

"That seems perfectly real and plausible to me," said Brad Templeton, a longtime technology entrepreneur and chairman of the board of directors of the Electronic Frontier Foundation. "There are many technically appealing things about centralization."

Rich Skrenta, co-founder of the search tool Topix.net, said Google appears to have a major advantage over its competitors in that its computing network appears to have been built using inexpensive hardware. If true, Google can quickly and inexpensively expand Z whenever it develops a new product that requires a lot of processing.

Centralization online However, some observers are skeptical that Google could persuade users to manage their personal and business lives online.

"This has been tried before, and it doesn't work," said Eric Raymond, president of the Open Source Initiative. "People don't like not having physical control of their bits and bytes. You put your data on someone else's servers and it's fundamentally out of your control."

Besides, Raymond said, Microsoft has yet to emerge as a viable threat that would threaten Google's dominance. "I don't see enough there for Google to be erecting a business strategy against," he said.

Thede of dtSearch said Google has yet another option: try to succeed where Netscape Communications failed. "What about a Google browser?" he said.

Source: Yahoo News

        

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