Will Google insiders have the opportunity to sell high?

February 9, 2005

Google insiders could have the opportunity to sell into strength, as Google holds its analyst day today, a week ahead of the largest stock lockup release of insider shares yet.

On Feb. 14, about 176.8 million shares of Google stock will be released from lockup.

In Wednesday morning trading, shares of Google rose nearly 1 percent and returned to rarefied territory above $200.

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But no one was around to buy shares above that price in the face of all the supply. By afternoon trading, shares were down to $193.

Will Google continue to come under pressure because of those shares or will there be enough demand to absorb them? It's hard to say with Google because investors have tended to keep their opinions close to the vest. Much like poker players, they keep their game face on.

Some analysts expect the supply to create a headwind for Google's shares. And, many insiders may gladly sell stock at lower prices, given where they received the shares.

But some believe there will be enough demand for those shares. Additionally, while the venture capitalists will be released from lockup, often they will not have distributed all their available shares to their limited partners. A third of the lockup can be considered more typical.

That's great news for Google insiders. Not only are they able to sell after the strongest quarter, but they're able to sell a week after Google holds its first-ever analyst day.

If past is precedent, the event Google convenes will be an atypical analyst day. After all, Google presents itself as an unconventional, untraditional and "do-no-evil" company.

But analysts rarely walk away from an analyst day without warming up to the company they're visiting. Google (GOOG: news, chart, profile) will no doubt put on its best and smartest face.

What do investors expect to happen? "Whatever it is, think the opposite," said one analyst.

Still, some consensus is emerging: It appears that analysts are looking forward to gaining an understanding Google's services.

Indeed, earlier this week, Google tweaked its image search features. If someone searches for a person or something visual, they'll receive a couple of images on the top of the search-result page. Earlier this year, Google had launched a TV search product and an enhanced tool to organize digital photos and video. Google launched a desktop search last year.

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These are products and services that can theoretically open the door to new inventory that Google can sell to advertisers.

While these products are in their very early stages, Google does have an e-mail service, called Gmail, that's been around for some time and was so popular that its beta test was available only to a limited number of users.

Analysts hope that Google will give them some insight as to which of its features and products it will formally roll out this year.

Disclaimer.

Source: Marketwatch

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